Religious Item

Week 51.1 Religious Item

For me I have a policy where I don’t sell or promote to friends in work place or places of workshop such as temple, church, mosque etc. Unless they asked me then it’s another story. Part of the reason is I never able to convince any friends to do the things I want to do even if I subsidize them, let alone selling things to them. Even a simple commitment to do some extra work they just brush off to do their own things. I have done enough in the past, thus selling to others is the best. 

In religion it’s a place where we seek the truth depending on who and what we believe. Thus, there is a lot of trust put on you by the people whom trusted you. I believe in law of cause and effect, thus religious place is a place I prayed and go. I have seen and hear some stories on those who stolen some temple fund and what happen to them few years down the road. It’s really very bad. Well, if you do happen to sell some precious metal with religious symbol on it, try to sell it at reasonable price. For religion is something you practice, it’s not right to make a rip-off on your customer on something their belief.

In Precious metal silver is silver, gold is gold. Even if you put any god picture into it, it does not make it more valuable in term of precious metal content. Just don’t get so carry-away when people sell you Kwan Yin silver bar, dragon silver bar, Jesus cross silver bar/coin etc. If you want, just get 1-2 pcs to show your belief and that it. Beyond that is not worth-while.

Running out of money

Week 50.1 Running out of money

From my conversation with many of the silver seller, it’s seems that most customer already running out of cash to purchase silver despite the current attractive pricing. There is very little activity among the seller. I guess most silver customer already ran out of cash to buy bullion.

It’s also reinforce my old experience on gold, once a person already converted a fraction of his asset to precious metal, further conversion will be minimal as a major portion of his cash is already spent. With the current pricing which is still lower than year 2010 price, it further reduce the interest among the buyer.

The next sales cycle will be just around the corner when annual bonus is given out to working people. However sales will never return to the great sales in Sept 2011. So, when will be the next great sales, well when silver price rise up again to USD35, USD40/oz then we will see some major activities. I believe most sales will come from those who converting their pro-folio from gold to silver.

FYI since 20-Dec 2011 (can’t recall the exact date), UOB main branch already run out of stock for gold. Well, I wonder when will all these cash rich gold-buyers diversify into silver. We are right here waiting for you.

At the same time, I begin to run out of ideas on what to write on precious metal after more than 50 articles. Till then CU around.

3F. Family, Friend and Fools: Moving Forward….

Week 49.2  3F. Family, Friend and Fools: Moving Forward….

In some of the entrepreneur talk, the concept of 3F was introduced. One of the popular questions asked is from whom do we get our customer or funding? The answer is 3F, family, friends and fools.

However, something very peculiar in Precious Metal is that most of the investors are unable to convince their family and friends to agree on buying physical precious metal. The only want they able to convince is someone who they don’t know. According to my sales statistic: 0% family/relative, 1% friends and 99% someone who I don’t know.

It’s also good to reduce 3F to 1F as one can maintain their friendliness relationship among their friends and relative.

How do one move forward from here?

Studies had shown that people will only come if there is a system in place.

Example 1: Let date and then have baby. Thus, nobody will come.

Let date, then get MARRIED, then have baby. Lot of people will come.

How will the system in place for Precious Metal in the future look like? I ‘m not sure but it must be cheap, reliable and flexible for general public to participate. Certainly it will require a lot of effort from various parties. I guess being profited from the sales of precious metal, seller should start some form of initiatives.

Cheap: Must not be limited to those who have physical store for buy and sell. Hopefully, every investor can sell.

Reliable: Some mechanism need to be in-place to prevent fraud and most importantly prevent Buyer/Seller backing off from their agreed deal.

Flexible: Certainly there will be liquidity problem when everybody tried to sell and some inadequate stock problem when everybody wants to buy. Some form of efficient pricing like stock market should be in-placed to allow easy disposal of precious metal at a fair price.

2011 in review

Week 49.1 2011 in review

Prior to May 2011 I believe that silver price will go up non-stop then the price slashed down from USD48/oz to USD32/oz. For the first time I got caught up with it. Soon it recovers back to USD40/- then 2nd heart attack price dropped to USD26/oz. Then just before the year 2011 ended, the 3^rd heart attack dropped to USD26/oz again. Wow! so tough in this business.

1^st silver heart attack I was heavily loaded but managed to recover a bit when the price back to USD40 by selling below cost. 2^nd silver heart attack, again I was caught but I managed to roll over quickly to cut my losses. Just in time for me to recover from the 2^nd silver heart attack. It is just enough to profit a bit even though the sales volume is high. Prior to the 3^rd heart attack, I settled most of my debt and not as heavily loaded as previously two attacked. At the same time, new player came in Oct/Nov 2011 with slashing prices here and there since Oct 2011. In the 3^rd heart attack, I’m not as heavily loaded as previously, thus I was not affected that much. Now it’s extremely difficult to do business in silver already. It’s difficult to compete with their pricing on certain products for various reasons. 

As the year 2011 ending, I managed to get some good sales during Christmas 2011. It’s small compared to what I used to get but now it’s considered reasonable lah. Well, it’s a consolation prize for me-lah.

At the same, I realized all my 2011 predictions went wrong. So, it’s not wise to do long term prediction. Week or bi-weekly prediction is much better and accurate. As things slowed down, I got to move on to other things nevertheless I will certainly be back when the sales recovered. However, the profitability will be much much less than previously.

Malaysia 2012 new notes

Week 48.1 Bank Negara New Currency Notes

It was a long queue for the new Bank Negara Malaysia 2012 notes. Never before in our history new Malaysian Bank notes is sold in complete set format with same series number. This is the first time. With a limited 50,000 sets at RM300/- per set for RM1, RM5, RM10, RM20, RM50 and RM100, it was a mad grab among all the collectors. Each person is only allowed to buy 1 set at one time with no repeat queue. Well, some of them manage to repeat queue without begin detected by the authorities. Some employed Child Labour. Whole family came and queue. Malaysia Boleh, Macam2 ada.

You can see the queue in facebook.

http://www.facebook.com/#!/bnm.official

Some of my customer managed to buy 6 sets, wow! How did he get it? He said he sold it for RM600/- around 5 sets. Wow! RM300/- profit per set better than selling silver ler. It will be a long time again, before we can have such memorable notes to collect, such a profitable product to sell, own, trade etc.

I went on the first day afternoon 22^nd Dec 2011, it was raining heavily before than so the queue is not that long. Thank god. Despite that, I waited 1 hour to get my notes. So managed to get myself one set but the number is not good AA00014XXX. Never mind better than nothing.

What was the previous statistic? Well, in 2007 the RM50/= new notes gold line on the side was sold at RM60 per set limited to 20,000 sets. The notes were numbered from A0000001 to A0020000. Each person can only buy 1 set. Last transacted sold price in ebay 2011 is at least RM400.  So for the complete set of currency, I think easily RM1000/- per set in the next few year if no economy collapse lah.

Till then good luck.

Changing Competition Landscape

Week 47.1 Changing Competition Landscape

Long time ago, people sell silver as numismatic product in ebay, I came in and starting selling it as bullion market and cornered the market. My market is primarily started from ebay and it has growth to other website such as lelong.com, mudah.my and some local forum in Internet etc.

Initially most of the customers are coming from ebay. After ebaying a while, since they are reselling their product to others in their own social networking, they will deal direct with me. After that some sellers pop up mostly in XXX.lot.my and also mudah.my.  I have tried some forum in the past but the sales are not that good because the number of users has not reached the critical masses for a reasonable sale to be materialize. Things started to change in late 2010.

Prior to 2011, most of them do not have a big capital. By 2011, many of them are from government department took a competitive personal loan from Bank rakyat, Bank Islam and start to become dealer like me. It’s really hit me hard. Come and teach me back a good lesson. “Ajar sama itu silvermalaysia”. Everybody starts slashing price like no tomorrow, all my agents just died like that. I have to do extra work by selling direct. Aiyah, how to sell lah some customer only want to buy few oz only.

To profit in the market now is like gambling, if you pick the right time to buy then it is easier to sell for a profit. If you pick the wrong time, you are stuck with it until the price rise again. To profit you must be able to replace your product at a lower cost than the price you sold. However, the sales volume may not be there. Let said for small time dealer, you need to buy 100 oz each time but your sales till date is just 40oz. You need to buy extra 60 oz (that is a risk). If you wait the spot price may go up and you risk losing your silver without any replacement. If you buy now, you risk holding extra stock 60oz without any buyer for a substantial period of time.

Some sellers want quick profit, if the spot price goes up like mad, normally they will just sell below their replacement cost. All that matters is the fiat currency they earned. So it’s also not easy to sell in rising market.

Well, what is the next thing? With properties prices at the peak, stock market performance so so only, business every-where is getting slowed down. There are millionaires with plenty of cash who will come into the market and become a dealer. It’s much better than putting $ in safe deposit. On top of that, some big investor is trying to become a small time dealer because when the time comes they must have an exit strategy to sell to everybody. How to fight a tank with a knife? Sure loss one. I wonder what will happen to those dealers who took a big personal loan. They have to keep selling no matter how low is the profit as there is interest to be paid. Angry BIRD. Well in long run, I’m sure they will make some $ but maybe a lot lesser than what they initially dreamed. 

For me I have no choice but to slow down lah. Look for the next big thing.! What is it? Can’t tell you yet!

Customer is my Best Friend in Need

Week 46.2 Customer is my Best Friend in Need.

Well, whenever you need expert advice on certain area be it in economy, post office,  JPJ, web hosting, medicine etc you will think of someone to ask.  Who do you ask?

For me those people whom I professionally know off will not entertain me that much. For example, even though I visit the doctor from my panel clinic many times yet there are many things that they will not shared with us due to our business relationship.  Similarly with those post office staff who you always send off your important packages. A different thing will be shared.

Yet, many of my customers from various field of expertise do share some of their experience with me on their field. It’s a complete 180 degree turn.  It’s always an interesting and refreshing discussing. Off course, I’m not their customer thus there is no conflict of interest and greater room for sharing. Certain times, when I ‘m in need of certain advice, I do call up some of my customer and ask for more information. They are helpful most of the time.

Unfortunately they seldom asked question other than precious metal. Nevertheless, I always make a point to answer all email and calls.