SilverMalaysia

Monday, August 29, 2011

Why Advertisement don’t work?


Week 31.1 Why Advertisement (word of mouth) don’t work?

Normally resellers will not disclosure their source and their customer to others. These are vital information which generates profit. Thus, when someone buys from me some of them does not want to leave an electronic trace behind. Thus, they will not buy from ebay lor or other online forum which can be traced by others. Instead they just sms or call me directly for quote. Some buy but ask me not to give any feedback.
Since I am cheaper than some of them, they will not include me in their blog, website etc. Thus, their customer will not know me lor. Only after some time they will know me lah with some searching at ebay and lowyat forum. The same is applicable to me as well. Just one day some big competitor will come into the market, then GoldChan will be gone for good but I wish for a good fight before a withdrawal. Overtime, the battle will be based on economic of scale.

At the same time I don’t want to be accused of stealing customer. Thus, if they come directly to me then I will serve them. Otherwise, I prefer the seller to keep their own customer contact. Though he may pay more courier charges, it’s worthwhile to keep our friendship.

Thus, even though many people got blog, some didn’t apply for adsense. For peanuts amount of money, suddenly all your competitor pop up in your very website. Thus, in long run a personal website is the way to go.

Can’t you see the main problem here people want a share in the piece of cake. Well, I can source you silver but never disclosure my source. It’s a complex ecosystem. Mostly are friends and relatives. Profiting from people you know. It’s a trend. You have to live with it. Nevertheless, there are few customers did tell their friends on who they source their silver from.

For news that lead to action, Bad news spread like wild fire, good news take forever to reach everybody.

Thursday, August 25, 2011

CME Margin Raise 2.


Week 30.2 CME Margin Raise 2.
A customer of mine raised lot of questions on the price movement of gold and silver. It’s indirectly forces me to do more work. That’s how I come out with the margin raise on Aug 14 Article.
Basically the margin for gold is still too small to support the market volatility for exchange to bear the lost. Then on 23rd August, SGE (Shanghai Gold Exchange) raised the margin requirement to 12% from 11%.
Gold price drop from peak USD1930/- to USD1840/oz in 1 day.
Then on 24th August 2011, CME raised the margin requirement for 100 oz gold from USD7425 to USD9450. 2nd Margin hike. The gold price drop from USD1840/oz to USD1700/oz with-in 1 day.
After, the 2nd Margin hike, margin is still at (USD9450/ 100 x USD1778.50 ) x 100% = 5.31%. It’s still has a long way to go. FYI, Margin for 5000 oz silver contract is 10%.
Had SGE not made the move on 23rd August, price drop will be more painful. I was expecting CME to make the move but did not expect SGE to make the move first.
Let me cut it short, I’m expect a 3rd CME margin raise before 31st August 2011 prior to last delivery date of August gold contract. Price will drop again. I’m expecting gold to drop around USD1650/oz. It’s a good time for them to act as some of the markets are closed for Hari Raya.
It’s still questionable whether you can benefit from it because some banks are closed when the prices are good.
Till then “Selamat Hari Raya”

Sunday, August 21, 2011

Week 30.1 Seller Beware. CITYLINK LOST MY SHIPMENT.


Week 30.1 Seller Beware. CITYLINK LOST MY SHIPMENT.

Hi,

 Just recently citylink express lost my shipment of 20 oz bar. CITYLINK claim department has yet to get back to me on this. I reimbursed the customer his money and now filing my claim with CITYLINK. He is a small time player 20 oz is a big lost for him. I absorb the lostlah but future customer if you want courier, hilang you tanggung yourself. Ok.

Prior to this, I also heard some lost shipment by my customer from other supplier using Citylink, Pos Laju and SKY NET. I didn’t take their concern seriously until I kena myself. I also have customer who work with POS Malaysia, even though he stay far away, he willing to come over to KLCC just to do COD. So, I now give my reader an upfront warning that if you use courier your item can get lost. Will tell you how other customers lost their item in later article.

POS Malaysia and DHL policy: no postage of Precious Metal, nevertheless, you can check with them.

Catch 22

If you put your item on insurance, next time the courier people knew that the shipment is expensive and they will start targeting you. If you don’t insured then only minimum damages will be paid to you. So what are you going to do. As off now, I no longer used any postal. Just COD in Klang Valley only.


Scenario

Customer SMS me stating that good yet to arrive since it was holiday cannot call citylink. Managed to call citylink a few times, they said the goods already send to Kelantan. Call them a few times, sometimes no answer etc… So finally I ask them to give me Kelantan number. They gave it to me and Kelantan told me they have not received my shipment.

Then I called by Citylink a few times, until one lady get back to me. She said that she needs to check with Shah Alam warehouse.

She then called me and told me that Shah Alam has shipped the item to Kota Bharu and need confirmation from Kota Bharu. Then later, she told me that Kota Bharu did not receive the shipment. So it is a confirmed lost. I wonder who is the driver for that day.

I was later told that I need to write a letter and provide information on the customer invoice to CityLink, she will forward it to the claim department. The claim department will called me within 5 working days. I faxed it to her on the same day.

3 days later, she said she didn’t receive it and I faxed it to her again last week and she reconfirmed that she received it. Until today, the claim department has yet to call me. I don’t have their number, the person in-charge did not give it me. Hopefully, it can be peacefully settled. If not, just file a case in tribunal court lah.


>>> 

Shipment Summary
Consignment No.
:
060307080115794
Reference No.
:
Signed For
:
Shipment Date
:
02-Aug-2011
Delivery Date
:
Delivery Location
:
Details
Date
Time
Remarks
STATUS
LOCATION
02-Aug-11
18:26
Shipment Collected
SERI KEMBANGAN, MALAYSIA
02-Aug-11
19:59
Shipment Bound for KOTA BHARU, MALAYSIA
SERI KEMBANGAN, MALAYSIA
02-Aug-11
20:09
Depart to SHAH ALAM, MALAYSIA
SERI KEMBANGAN, MALAYSIA
02-Aug-11
23:53
Received by
SHAH ALAM, MALAYSIA
03-Aug-11
03:32
Depart to KOTA BHARU, MALAYSIA
SHAH ALAM, MALAYSIA
* All status dates and times reflect the time zone where the shipment status update took place.






Other courier

Thus, the only one still reliable one is UPS (so far clean record for me) but shipping wise Fedex is much faster.

Recently, it not sure who screw up my shipment of few hundred oz either my Supplier or Fedex, last week Fedex SMS me asking for custom clearance details on a given air way bill number. I given them all the details. Then, when I check the AWB number again, the item was shipped to Canada. Supplier said item already in Shah Alam Fedex office. I called Fedex up on Saturday, they told me I have no business with the AWB number and ask me to check with my supplier. You can see the screen-shot below for that tracking number. Hopefully, it is just a software glitch.




Now still waiting email reply from supplier, hopefully I will get my goods. Until things are sorted out, I need to freeze the ordering. Other courier company I don’t know. You need to check with them. At the mean time sales is good but since I unable to replace it due to many pending issues, with the rapid price movement aiyah RUGI RUGI Lah. So, stop selling for a while.
Just got my shipment on Monday 23rd August 2011. Can start reordering again but then spot too high. See how 1st.

Sunday, August 14, 2011

CME margin raise


Week 29.1 CME Margin Raise for gold
Last week CME did a margin raise of 22% for gold contract. Now let us look at the margin for gold and silver.
Silver contract initial margin is USD21600/-, price at USD40/oz x 5000oz = USD200,000
21600/200,000 = 10.8% margin.
If you raise the margin some more, people may just as well buy physically directly.
Those who liquidate earlier are weak one, now those remaining long are very strong, it will be difficult to liquidate them. I don’t think the margin can be raise much more. If they raise the margin, price will drop a bit, then the long will buy/sapu all the physical at cheaper price. It is a catch 22. It’s a very difficult position for JPMorgan and HSBC who are still holding a large position of short.
For gold the initial margin is USD7425/- contract 100 oz price at USD1800.
7425/ (100 x 1800) = 4.125% margin.

Thus there is still a lot of room for margin raise. Perhaps, margin raise might be done closer to 20th of August onwards if price still around USD1730++ and there is a delivery at end of august. Just a wild guess.

Other technical indicators


Based on  last closing day 12th August 2011.
If you look at the RSI-14, it is 71.20 (daily chart) and 79.63 (weekly chart). Thus, gold is over-brought.
If you look at full stochastics, STO the value is 81+, suggest over-brought.
If you look at ADX, it still shows a strong uptrend.
 My guess, possible margin raise in August or Sept 2011 to drive the price down.  If you are using UOB gold account then it may be possible for you to do some trading buy-sell because the spread is RM2/gram. For other banks it is difficult because the spread is very high 5%-8%. If you plan to buy some physical, then just delay your decision until RSI-14 is < 60. As of now, there is no supply shortage for gold. Most vendor still got lot of gold for sale.
If you lose money, I’m not responsible ok.

Thursday, August 11, 2011

MAYBANK discontinued gold wafer program.


Week 28.3  MAYBANK discontinued gold wafer program.
Yesterday night, one customer sms me that maybank is discontinuing it gold wafer withdrawal program. I never have maybank gold Saving account before because UOB offer a better deal since day 1 and physical some more. Nevertheless for the benefit of many investors, here is the info
Here is the scanned letter from him email to me.
29/07/2011
Discontinuation of gold wafer
In line with MGIA (Maybank Gold Investment Account)’s enhanced features, existing GSPA accountholders who wish to withdraw from their account in a form of gold wafer may do so, subject to availability as per Clause 16.2 of the GSPA agreement with a premium charge applicable. Accountholders have until 02 September 2011 to withdraw in the form of wafers, after which the available options of payment will be in the form of cash or credit into their accounts.
Conversion of gold wafer at Maybank branches
If you are a GSPA accountholder holding Maybank gold wafers, you may convert the gold wafers to cash or credit them to your account at the prevailing market price at selected Maybank branches from now till 02 Sept 2011. The Selected Maybank branches are listed below
Kuala Lumpur Main, Penang Main, Kuantan Main, Kota Kinabalu, Bukit Bintang, Alor Setar Main, Seremban, Lahad Datu, Shah Alam, Malacca Main, Kota Bharu Main, tawau, Ipoh Main, Seremban, WIsma Satok
Should you wish to have the option of retaining the gold in physical form, we would like to suggest that you opt to purchase Kijang Emas gold coin issued by Bank Negara Malaysia which is available at selected Maybank branches.
As a token of appreciation for your continuous support, we would like to extend yoy a special offer which is only available from now till 02 September 2011. For every minimum purchase of 150g of gold, you will be entitled to a special rate. The special rate quoted is lower than the selling price published in our website. Please bring along this letter to any of our Maybank branches nationwide to enjoy the offer.
>>>> 
Well, whatever is it you are free to comment on this. Discuss with your fellow friends and investor on what is your next course of action.
1.      Do nothing. After 2nd Sept if you want to sell the wafer, sell at ebay, mudah, etc
2.      Sell all your wafer back to Maybank
3.      Change to cash
4.      Other action
>>>> 
Well you can place your comment below in this blog.