Week 5.1 Predictions and Plans. How about you?
My plan is
a) Settle some of my personal issues
b) Planning on how to move away from Precious Metal. What item should I buy? What business model should I venture into? FYI, it is 10 – 20x more difficult than buying precious metal. Buying metal is easy, just go to UOB pay cash and put your stuff in safe box and forget about it until you need some money.
c) Invest in education. Attend some 1-3 courses/seminar.
d) Enjoy life while the system is still in place.
e) Secret thing. Can’t tell one.
My prediction for this year 30th Dec 2011
a) Oil price USD120 by year end
b) USD to RM exchange :- 2.8 to 2.9
c) Silver USD40/oz
d) Gold USD1500/oz
If recession I don’t think silver will go down to USD20/oz or gold USD1000/oz.
Property in Malaysia will maintain their prices this year.
Time-line for Precious Metal (PM). Not if but when
a) Long delivery time for PM starting March 2011
b) Postal services started to break down starting with USPS. Some article has stated US Postal Service may run out of $ by Oct/Nov 2011
c) Frequent lost/thief of postal item especially those who sends PM via normal postal service
d) Vendor did not commit to their trade due to rapid price movement (everywhere)
e) Vendor ran away with customer money after bank wire (oversea purchase)
f) Fake bullion especially silver will start to emerge. Easy to manufacture but difficult to detect.
g) Enormous freight charges for shipping due to oil price hike.
h) Australia to be the PM seller of last resort. (The only few countries which can still maintain some growth due to their vast natural resources).
OK since you have been reading for quite sometimes, do you mind letting sharing your plan and predictions for this year with us.
My prediction for year 2011, 30th DEC
ReplyDelete1) OIL price 150 year end.
2) USD to RM exchange will be 3.0. (SGD will
appreciate more than RM)
3) SILVER USD 50/OZ.
4) GOLD USD 1500/OZ.
5) RECESSION will hit in 12 months time. (we never really recover from 2008 after all)
If recession, depending on which type of recession. If ASIA recession with HIGH INFLATION (with WEST better), SILVER will undershoot to 20-25/OZ, GOLD will undershoot to 1100-1200/OZ. METAL price is after all supported by ASIA. (the WEST is just too poor to afford metal)
If WEST suffered serious inflation and triggered more money printing WORLDWIDE, GOLD SILVER will skyrockets like fuelled up with rocket fuel.
if CHINA falls , all asset classes will fall together. In history, there is no 1 example of when a superpower falls, any asset class that appreciates in reverse. In 2008 when financial crisis hits, all traders were deleveraging like crazy rushing to cash causing all paper futures trading to experience sudden big price correction. (GOLD fell from 1000 to 770, but it is the best asset class that suffered the least losses)
ReplyDeleteThe asset class only appreciates after the country do massive money printing. Of course if you stay calm and have holding power, long term you will be fine.
In information age, you have to react fast if you want to take full advantage of information. If you dont want or lazy to be speedy, then stay calm and sleep well is another way.
I have a friend in India shared this info to me, how much gold do you think averagely a middle income household is holding in physical at home ? It is about 600-800gm. That is 25 troy ounces. And they make it a practice to add 10-20 gm every year. They need GOLD so their daughters can find a good husband. (NOT THE OTHER WAY ok?)
ReplyDeleteWithout India, GOLD wont have the price today. GOLD is just jewellery for hoarding.
My plan GOLD SILVER bull is far from over, no need to plan what you going to do with it yet, just plan how to find more supply, plan is to accumulate as much as possible when people are running for cover or selling in panic.
ReplyDeleteGOLD SILVER will return to full money standard after 2020 (or at least in MALAYSIA that is where you enjoy FULL BENEFIT, when you used it to buy houses) ...
call me crazy for calling it that long, but that is my calculation based on secret algorithm. US DOLLAR took 20 years to displace GREAT BRITAIN POUND as global currency even after 1944 BRETTON WOOD.
The standard will start small in some countryside, states, then slowly move to developing countries, then slowly to advanced countries and eventually become global trend of metal backed money.
Again, I can always be wrong. Just sharing my thought and analysis.
If the world were going to hell in a hand-basket, then I would expect gold to outperform silver. However, it is only the developed economies that are on the rocks -- and only the US that faces true catastrophe. Thus, we have seen silver outperform gold for the last eight years. The market is telling us that while uncertainty reigns supreme, the global economy will prosper in the years ahead. While gold most effectively insures the investor against economic devastation, silver offers both a shield against monetary turmoil and exposure to market growth. - in Schiff Gold Newsletter
ReplyDeleteHi tan, Thank You for your lengthy comment.! as a seller i'm a bit conservative in my prediction and action. One thing I felt is missing is that many including you do not feel as strongly as I do on the scarcity of oil in the future.
ReplyDeleteThere is a good book about oil to read, it is called THE SQUEEZE by Tom Bower, his 13th book in his research into oil market. I believe that is the best book about OIL as he went all the way to interview the guys in '7 SISTERS' to OIL PRODUCING GOVERNMENT to OIL TRADERS.
ReplyDeleteSummary of that book is OIL is actually more abundant than we think and technology talents in finding more OIL are abundant, but it is human politics and nationalism the caused the scarcity. Example GULF of MEXICO has more OIL than we think.
RUSSIA has a large oil reserves in SIBERIA, but they would rather let GOVERNMENT company to extract it (which is slow and not efficient) than let BP or EXXON MOBIL to do it.
But one day still, we will run out of easy OIL. All OIL fields are now in deep sea area, where no nation has claim to it. So should we go to WAR for that ??
Recently PETRONAS found new OIL FIELD in SARAWAK is example of when you let talents run the show, they delievered !
ReplyDeleteThe PETRONAS new CEO is an open minded one, employing talents regarding of their races and nationality. His gamble pays off handsomely for MALAYSIANS.
BP has built an oil rig over GULD of MEXICO with 1 billion barrels OIL reserves (we consumed about maybe 12 million barrels per day?) conservatively, but they cut corner while building the OIL PLATFORM due to greed and arrogant and ended up the OIL PLATFORM tilted. They were slow to repair it, and before they know, HURRICANE KATRINA hit the OIL PLATFORM badly damaging it in 2006, after that you know what happened, 2008 came, OIL supply squeeze and then OIL 147/barrel.
ReplyDeleteEverytime they decided to drill a suspected OIL FIELD , it can cost few hundred millions to billions, example SHELL wasted 1.6 billions on 1 oilfield to hit a dry hole. It is all about geosensing geophysics experts and technique.
there are 2 type of people.
ReplyDeletea) People who believe plenty of oil remain to be discovered. Peak oil is not an issue.
b) People who believe that peak oil is an issue and not much usable oil left to be discovered.
I belong to (b).
1. What they said in press about big oil discovery not a single word I believe? Just said only mah! it will take years for the truth to be out. By then if no oil, or very little usable /recoverable oil then what U going to do.
ReplyDelete2. Oil Exploration is losing $$ business cause most of the discovery is already done.
3.have U heard of any oil accident as big as GULF of mexico. Have U heard of underwater explosion b4? I think the rig is begin hit by torpedo.
All you need is for credit bubble to burst, then OIL supply will temporarily come gushing to the market more than you can consume.
ReplyDeleteOne day we will hit peak oil, that day is not in this decade yet. If the OIL price hits 200 this decade, it is because of massive money printing and deliberate slowdown of oil production by producing nations.
we shall see. !
ReplyDeleteSome of us have strong views about certain things including myself.!
never be too sure about something. that is the art of investment.
ReplyDeleteanyway just sharing, I also got strong opinion about many things, but I still listen to others as I love sharing and analysing.